Category Archives: Gamos

SAMSET Releases a New Guide to Clean Energy Transitions for Sub Saharan Municipalities

Simon Batchelor from Gamos writes on the recently-released Guidelines to Clean Energy document for SAMSET.

As a part of our ongoing work with Sub Saharan Municipalities in Uganda and Ghana, the research team have brought together some basic information on clean energy transitions.  “GUIDELINES TO CLEAN ENERGY:- A PRACTICAL GUIDE FOR SUB SAHARAN AFRICAN MUNICIPALITIES (2017)”. The Guide is intended to help decision makers in Municipalities in Sub Saharan Africa to consider ways in which they could make their city utilize cleaner energy. Its foreword states “This manual has been designed for use by city officials and planners working in sub-Saharan Africa. It is a practical handbook, which identifies easy to achieve energy interventions that will save money (for cities, businesses and households), promote local economic development, and enhance the sustainable profile of a city. This manual is specifically aimed as a support tool to achieve the implementation of key interventions within municipalities across sub-Saharan Africa.”

The 200 page document starts with a call for cleaner energy. Its opening chapter draws on various sources to show how our ongoing use of fossil fuels is linked to climate change. The historical contribution of Sub Saharan Africa to global climate change is small compared to the developed countries, however over the next 30 years it will increase its contribution particularly if ‘Business as Usual’ is continued. The opening chapters discuss how this global problem is the responsibility of all, and how municipalities could take a decision to move towards clean energy that might contribute to climate change mitigation in the long term.

The guide, however, is titled ‘A Practical Guide’ and we felt it important to move quickly on from the macro picture of global challenges to the specifics of what a municipality might do. Each of the chapters has the same format –

  • An overview, which includes some basic description of technology and social change options;
  • The Case; which discusses how simple changes can make considerable differences
  • Potential for Rollout; discussing the realities of Sub Saharan African life and whether the technology could be introduced
  • Barriers to implementation (and effort to resolve); an attempt to anticipate barriers, and suggestions of what might be done
  • How to go about implementation; some suggestions for action
  • Case Studies; some Sub Saharan African case studies to illustrate the relevance and possibilities of the chapters subject.

Chapter 5 starts with Energy efficient lighting a technology that is relatively easy to implement. LED bulbs have become common and simple action ensuring they are available in the market and ‘encouraged’ among consumers can save significant amount of electricity (compared to older lamps). Chapter 6 broadens the picture to include energy efficient buildings.Ideally these need some design at the very start, but the chapter also makes suggestion for retrofitting that can lower energy consumption. Chapter 7 considers public transport. Vehicles can not only consume considerable amounts of fossil fuel, but create localized pollution. The chapter focuses on the possibilities of public transport as an alternative to everyone getting their own car. Chapter 8 considers cooking. While it may seem that municipalities have little to say about the choice of domestic cooking fuels, the ongoing use of biomass (charcoal) in urban areas contributes to local pollution, kitchen pollution and global pollution. Municipalities can undertake various strategies to assist consumers to move toward genuinely clean cooking.

Waste to energy in Chapter 9 is very much a municipality concern. Collection of waste is a challenge to many SSA municipalities, and the possibility of converting it to useful energy is worth consideration. Chapter 10 talks about Solar Photovoltaics. Solar PV has come down in price considerably over the last few years and this chapter discusses the possibilities – from solar farms contributing to the national grid, to mini and micro grids, to solar home systems.

Renewable purchase agreements are a policy tool that can encourage clean energy. Chapter 11 discusses these, pointing the municipality players to consider the policy instruments available in their country. Chapter 11 touches on carbon trading – this again is effectively a policy instrument that municipalities might consider using. And finally , a last chapter summaries but does not deal in depth, some ideas on Concentrated Solar Power, Wind Power and Solar Water Heaters.

The guide ends with a call to action, to share ideas with colleagues, and to take small steps that help us tread lightly on the earth. “We may have discussed many ideas, technologies, approaches, regulations, policies, feed in tariffs, low energy light bulbs, and energy efficient buildings among others, but ultimately consumption and sustainability come down to you. Humanity has a large footprint on this world and currently we are not treading lightly. We consume; we consume fossil fuel, we create so much impact that our climate is changing, we build cities that can be seen from space; we are heavy on the earth.”

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An experience of Dar es Salaam bus rapid transit system – DART

Simon Batchelor of Gamos writes on his experiences with the Dar Es Salaam rapid transit system (the DART).

When SAMSET started in 2014, its first network meeting was in Dar Es Salaam alongside an ICLEI conference.  At the conference there was an offering by the mayor of Dar for attendees to have a field trip to see the Dar es Salaam bus rapid transit system called DART.  At that time there was little more than road works to see, but what was impressive was the ambition to carve out whole highways that would be bus only roads.

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Morocco BRT terminal in Dar Es Salaam. Image: Simon Batchelor

Like most city wide infrastructure projects, the system has been in the planning for more than a decade.  Discussed in 2003, JICA encouraged Dar municipality to consider the system, and designs started in about 2005.  Consultations with the public and those affected by the construction, social and environment impact studies, ongoing economic feasibility studies all take time, so it wasn’t until 2012 that the road works started to appear.  It will eventually be 6 phases, but phase 1 was completed in April 2015 (about 6 months after our first network meeting – so we didn’t get to ride it then).

When looking for some of the facts surrounding the system, I came across a document – “What necessitated establishment of a BRT system in Dar es Salaam?”.  Their answer…”When you have a swelling city population and you find yourself in the teeth of agonizing transport problems and hitches, the logical safety valve is to have a type of public transport that uses a passenger medium uninterrupted. As the name suggests BRT is a mode of public transport that uses rapid trunk buses. BRT is a huge-capacity transport solution to public transport problems the City of Dar es Salaam faces. The BRT system operates in a way quite similar to a tramway. In the latter passengers board trams while in the former passengers ride on huge buses plying on exclusive lanes.”  (My emphasis)

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Interior of one of the DART buses. Image: Simon Batchelor

So when we were in Dar for other business last week, we took the opportunity to ride the buses.   Phase 1 is said to be a single 23 km line from a station called Kimara Terminal down to the CBD.  However we found ourselves at the end of a branch line, at Morroco Terminal.  The system is said to have cost around $180 million so far.  Since there are branches one has to choose the right bus. We got on at Morroco, and were advised to take the No 3 bus in order to get to the Zanizbar ferry terminal.

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Proposed full route of the DART. Image: http://ansoncfit.com/wp-content/uploads/DART-Phase-1-e13033701609191.png 

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Citizens riding the DART bus. Image: Simon Batchelor

It runs some 140 Chinese made buses that in themselves are unusual.  Each station or terminal sits raised at about stomach height.  The buses have floors and doors at that height on the right hand side.  On the other side for emergencies they have one door that has steps down to road level – mainly for the driver since no one ever gets on that left hand side.

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Bus terminal in Dar Es Salaam. Image: Simon Batchelor

The terminals have gates and one purchases either a seasonal ticket and gets a Contactless smart card or at the counter and gets a printed ticket with a bar graphic.  Placing the ticket under the gate scanner gets you through the gate or like many other rapid transport systems in cities one taps the card and the price of the journey is taken from it.  At the moment there are staff to help people get through the gates as the whole system is still being nurtured among the general population.

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Passengers using a ticket turnstile. Image: Simon Batchelor

We entered the bus at one end of the line (Morroco), and found a clean air conditioned No 3 bus that would not have felt out of place in any modern bustling city.  By mid journey the bus was full and the heat radiated by so many bodies had overwhelmed the air conditioning and people had opened the windows.  This was not rush hour but was middle of the day, so I can imagine it gets pretty cramped at peak times.  However while it declined in comfort by the end of the journey, it was indeed quick.   We had sat in a taxi the day before for an hour in a very slow moving traffic jam; this trip took us only 20 minutes.  It felt impressive to look ahead of the bus and see the completely open highway.

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Passengers on the DART. Image: Simon Batchelor

We have talked a lot in this blog about the growing needs of municipalities, and SAMSET is focused on long term solutions.  Dar es Salaam is a fast growing commercial capital, producing 70 percent of Tanzania’s gross domestic product and is the hub of economic activity with an estimated daytime population of close to six million.  Analysis in 2014 showed that some private 5,200 passenger buses were operating on the city roads, and traffic congestion was already having an impact on the economic well-being of the city.  A metro was not possible, and the rapid bus system seemed viable.  It is said it will transport 300,000 a day in this interim phase.

Having now ridden the system, I can see how it can avoid the traffic problems.  I think it probably already gets overwhelmed in rush hour and be uncomfortable to ride at those times (much like most mass transit systems in most capital cities!  I try to avoid the London underground at peak times!).  I wish the municipality of Dar the best for its subsequent phases and will be interested to see its longer term use of lower carbon buses.

Ongoing ‘Decreasing International Solar PV Prices’.

Simon Batchelor from Gamos writes to continue the theme of global solar PV prices, and their continuing price reduction.

In his blog on Decentralised Solar PV Acceleration in South Africa, my colleague, Mark Borchers, noted that “Where national grid power prices are rising fast, as is the case in many African countries, the decreasing international solar PV prices will sooner or later lead to a situation where it makes sense for businesses to install their own grid-connected rooftop systems.”  In a blog last year “Will Solar Photovoltaics Continue to Decrease their Cost?” we shared some insights into the ‘decreasing international solar PV prices’.

It is well worth keeping an eye on this price descent of solar, and this blog takes the opportunity to refer to a new report by IRENA – The International Renewable Energy Agency. The report “THE POWER TO CHANGE: SOLAR AND WIND COST REDUCTION POTENTIAL TO 2025” focuses on utility scaled activities, nevertheless they present an up to date analysis of solar photovoltaics and suggestions of costs through to 2025.

They confirm that solar PV modules have high learning rates (i.e. cost reductions as technology manufacturers accumulate experience) (18% to 22%) and rapid deployment – there was around 40% growth in cumulative installed capacity in each of 2012 and 2013 and around 30% in 2014 and 2015. These factors resulted in PV module prices declining by around 80% between the end of 2009 and the end of 2015. In 2011, price declines accelerated as oversupply created a buyer’s market. The price declines then slowed between 2013 and 2015 as manufacturer margins reached more sustainable levels and trade disputes set price floors in some markets. Current country average module prices range from USD 0.52 to USD 0.72/W. They believe that module costs are set to continue to fall, and they state that by their reckoning, module costs will have dropped by 42% by 2025.

However these module costs are only part of the system costs. IRENA shows that there are considerable gains to be made by reducing all the other system costs. In their figure 2 (see below) they show some of the balance of system costs for various countries of utility scale PV projects. It is interesting to note that the difference between China and Germany on the one hand and Australia and Japan on the other is a factor of 3. The report suggests that there is considerable room for reducing these balance of system costs further and it is improved efficiencies of installation that will continue to drive the system prices down.

The report also considers the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE), which takes into account the lifetime of the system, the ongoing operation and maintenance costs, as well as the capital investment. They note that the LCOE of solar PV fell 58% between 2010-15, making it increasingly competitive at utility scale. Of course looking ahead there are many unknowns, however their predictions are that utility scale PV could have project costs in the range of USD 0.03 to USD 0.12/kWh by 2025.

This general trend highlighted by the report in the context of utility scale PV nevertheless supports Mark Borchers’ observations on shopping malls and PV. He noted that “a combination of steadily reducing international solar PV prices and consistently higher-than-inflation electricity price hikes” was behind the decision to put solar PV on malls, and that “such installations are now a financial no-brainer – giving an 18% internal rate of return (IRR) with a 5 year payback”. While the IRENA report had a slightly different focus (scale of PV), it nevertheless confirms that PV is likely to continue its price descent, making the IRR for shopping malls in South Africa even better in the coming years.

Mark ends his blog by stating that since this is financially worthwhile, and will inevitably become even more so, he calls for urban areas to think about the “big implications for sustainable energy planning”. We echo that call.

gamosjune2016bloggraph

Smart Power – Smart Storage

Simon Batchelor from Gamos writes on the increasing role that smart energy storage solutions have in developing sustainable urban energy.

On Friday 4th March 2016, the UK government published an interesting report on ‘Smart Power’ which might be relevant to the forward thinking municipalities of SAMSET. This was a review where the the (UK) National Infrastructure Commission was asked to consider how the UK can better balance supply and demand, aiming towards an electricity market where prices are reflective of costs to the overall system. Its findings have some relevance to the longer term planning for the municipalities involved in SAMSET.

‘Smart power’ makes practical recommendations to improving the electricity market of UK – not new subsidies or substantial public spending but three key recommendations. One of the three key recommendations is “to encourage network owners to use storage.” The Smart power report found that the flexible smart power system recommended by the National Infrastructure Commission could result in savings of up to £8.1 billion a year by 2030.

SBatch samset image1 mar2016

The strategic use of storage could create an operational flexibility that would “significantly reduce the integration cost of intermittent renewables, to the point where their whole-system cost makes them a more attractive expansion”. Increasing flexibility was found to be “low-regret option”, reducing the overall cost while maintaining security of supply requirements.

Why is storage a key to unlocking the UK grid? Storage allows consumers and suppliers to take energy and store it so that it can be used when it is most needed. In the UK electricity prices vary throughout the day, and across the year. When demand is higher, prices rise. Storage technology allows consumers to buy electricity when it is cheap and use it later when it is needed. There are a number of ways electricity can be stored. Today, the UKs main source of storage is through pumped hydro – simply converting electric energy into potential energy and back by moving water up and down a hill. There is, however, an increasing range of alternative ways to store energy including; chemical batteries, compressed air and supercapacitors.

SBatch samset image2 mar2016

Electricity has historically been difficult and expensive to store. However, over the last decade there has been a great deal of innovation in electricity storage technologies driven mostly by consumer electronics like mobile phones and investment in electric vehicles. This rapidly evolving environment has driven innovation and reduced costs. For example, the cost of lithium ion batteries has decreased from more than $3,000/kWh in 1990 to less than $200/ kWh today. These technologies are now on the verge of being able to compete with power stations for some of the services they provide. Crucially, storage technology will not need subsidies to be attractive to investors – businesses are already queuing up to invest.

We are not talking small batteries here. The report gives two examples. The ‘Kilroot Advancion® Energy Storage Array’ is based in Carrickfergus in Northern Ireland and offers 10 MW of interconnected energy storage, equivalent to 20 MW flexible resource. This storage – which is comprised of over 53,000 batteries – is able to respond to changes in the grid in less than a second, providing a very fast response ancillary service to help balance the electricity system at times of high demand. The array is a fully commercial project, with no additional costs for consumers. The ‘Big Battery’ in Leighton Buzzard scheme features a 6MW/10MWh storage solution comprising approximately 50,000 lithium ion batteries, which has enabled UK Power Networks to manage electricity demand at peak times without building excess capacity.

It is the idea that storage unlocks some of the generating potential of the middle of the night that may prove attractive. With the right policy environment, battery costs could enable municipalities to mitigate power outages, and shave off peak loading. This would give everyone a better experience with their electricity supply, enable more renewables to be in the system, and according to the report, this could be done at no additional cost to the consumers. Most grid profiles are similar to the one above for the UK. There is low use in the middle of the night, increasing during the day, and with a peak demand in the early evening as lights, televisions and cooking come on. This is true even for sub Saharan Africa as the daily load curves for Kenya illustrates. Using and storing that ‘middle of the night’ energy could improve consumers experience without creating new generating capacity.

SB 3dgraph image3 mar2016

Ref for graphic ENERGY EFFICIENCY FROM THE KENYA POWER PERSPECTIVE Margaret Kanini 2013

Bring Me Sunshine…

Simon Batchelor from Gamos writes on the Witkop Solar Farm in Limpopo Province, South Africa,

At our recent network meeting in Polokwane, we visited Witkop Solar Farm which is within the municipality’s boundaries.  Witkop is a 30 megawatt solar farm built and maintained by SunEdison in the province of Limpopo of South Africa.  There is remarkably little on the internet to describe this installation although that may be a function of the ease of installing and running solar farms?  It was part of South Africa’s push to get Independent Power Producers to install renewable energy.   In an overview of the processes involved, Eberhard, Kolker & Leigland  (2014) note the difference between South Africa’s competitive tender approach and a Feed in Tariff as used in many other countries.   “South Africa occupies a central position in the global debate regarding the most effective policy instruments to accelerate and sustain private investment in renewable energy. In 2009, the government began exploring feed-in tariffs (FITs) for renewable energy, but these were later rejected in favor of competitive tenders. The resulting program, now known as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP), has successfully channeled substantial private sector expertise and investment into grid-connected renewable energy in South Africa at competitive prices.”

Witkop was cited in the preferred bids in 2011 by the South African government, named in the pipeline in 2012, and construction started in 2013. As part of the terms of the financing agreement, power generated from the two facilities will be purchased by Eskom, the national utility in South Africa, through a 20-year power purchase agreement.

As part of our network meeting, SAMSET created a video ‘Aide Memoire’ of the visit, as seen below.

Why Waste That Energy?

Simon Batchelor from Gamos writes on the SAMSET team’s visit to Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality’s Simmer and Jack waste-to-energy facility.

As a part of the Africities Summit 2015 (Mark Borchers’ previous blog), we visited the Simmer and Jack Landfill site to see an example of a waste to energy facility. Ekurhuleni Metropolitan Municipality is not part of the SAMSET programme of work, however they were kind enough to host a site visit to the 1MW landfill gas to electricity plant at the Simmer and Jack landfill site in Germiston, Johannesburg. This project, which was commissioned in September 2014, has reduced electricity purchases from Eskom by 7 GWh/year. The gas capture has also greatly improved local air quality and the environmental conditions of the communities living alongside or nearby the site.

The work in Germiston had already been used as a case study for the Urban Energy Support programme, funded by the South African Local Government Association (SALGA) in partnership with SAGEN. SAGEN is the South African German Energy Programme implemented by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ). Sustainable Energy Africa (SEA) was commissioned by GIZ to develop the case studies, in close partnership with SALGA and GIZ.

We compiled a video made up of information from the case study and video footage taken during the site visit, which we hope will enhance the original case study.

At a recent professional development meeting for DFID (UK Aid) staff (Feb 2016), the video was shown and used as a discussion point on waste by Prof D Wilson, Visiting Professor in Waste Management at Imperial College London. Many of the SAMSET municipalities are concerned with waste management and as cities grow it is an increasing problem. Perhaps more of this utilization of the gas would turn a problem into an opportunity.

Africities, 2063, and Time

This is a joint blog by Simon Batchelor from Gamos and Sumaya Mahomed, Professional Officer in Renewable and Energy Efficiency in the Cape Town Municipality.

At the recent Africities conference, some of the SAMSET researchers had a conversation with municipal partners, and this article tries to capture its essence.  Their subject – timescales.

In the development sector, donors, civil society, NGOs, researchers, all tend to speak in terms of 1 to 3 years projects. While the planning processes of logical frameworks and business cases allows for an impact after the project end, there are few agencies willing to commit to more than 3 years. SAMSET is actually a four year project and in that sense quite rare.  Most of the other USES projects were 1 to 3 years. Yet within SAMSET is the aspiration to assist our partner municipalities to gather data, create a state of energy report, to model the future (based on that data), to take decisions and create a strategy for ‘energy transitions’. And, within the timeframe of the project, to take some first steps in that strategy, some actions.

In a slight contrast to this, Africities has as its slogan – “SHAPING THE FUTURE OF AFRICA WITH THE PEOPLE: THE CONTRIBUTION OF AFRICAN LOCAL AUTHORITIES TO AGENDA 2063 OF THE AFRICAN UNION.”. It is looking at 2063!  That is (nearly) a fifty year horizon. Africities knows that municipal planning, changes in infrastructure, raising the finance for those changes, takes decades not years.

SAMSET is funded by UK donors and some of the researchers come from the UK, so lets take the London Cross rail link as an example. First of all, lets remember that the essence of London Underground – the transport system that effectively keeps London working – that the essence was established in 1863 (The Metropolitan Railway, using gas-lit wooden carriages hauled by steam locomotives!). That’s nearly one hundred and fifty years ago. The cross link is a new tunnel that will join east London (the banking and business hub) to west London, and beyond. This tunnel has to go ‘in a straight line’ while at the same time missing existing underground tunnels, water mains, etc. At times it will be created just 1 metre from an existing underground structure.

So its perhaps surprising that it was apparently first mentioned in 1941, was written on a plan in 1943, serious consultations in the seventies, serious proposals in the nineties, commercial proposal in 2001, and decided on in 2005 (10 years ago) and construction started 2009. Despite the huge advances in tunnelling, it will still take another 5 years to complete.

And of course it is only one part of an ongoing dynamic change in infrastructure of one of the worlds leading cities.

So imagine now trying to raise funding for a Bus Rapid Transport system in Polokwane. The changes will require that roads be changed, new lanes created, negotiations with landowners of key areas, procurement of the equipment. It is not surprising that it has taken over 9 years since serious planning started (2006), and that it will take until 2020 before it is fully implemented, with all the associated traffic disruption of road works etc. Infrastructure in cities takes time to change.

SAMSET modelling shows what the energy consumption of a partner city might look like in 2030. It starts with a ‘business as usual’ model and then explores possible changes, assisting the partners to identify a key change that will make a good (low carbon) longer term change. In the case of Cape Town, the municipality asked for projections to 2040, as the felt 2030 was too close. The timescales in municipality minds are of 10 year, 20 year projects, not 1 to 3 year disconnected projects.

gamos.capetown blog growth

Figure 1 Cape Town Growth in energy consumption per sector for ‘business as usual’ scenario.

And consider the energy impact of a building. A building will last 40 years or more, so if planning permission is given to an energy inefficient glass tower, the air-con commitment is there until 2063.

So municipal planning has a very long term view. Of course in a counter flow to this long view of the municipal civil servants are the politicians who have a very short term view. Politicians are often concerned with short term benefits and easy wins, so they or their party gets re-elected.  For city planners it is a difficult balance.

So when we think of energy transitions what is the right timescale? Well in a complex world we have to think of all the actors, their different needs and juggle all of them together. We do need to find early easy wins so that donors to research projects and politicians are happy enough to fund a phase two.  We do need to build capacity so that despite the movement of people from job to job, a municipality gradually gains the required skills to consult, plan and implement longer term energy transitions.  And we do need to have a long term view. Building infrastructure, even building buildings, commits a city to a particular energy path for decades not just years, and so those long term implications need to be taken into account.